Weekly Crop Commentary - 5/9/2025

Haylee VanScoy
Director of Grain Purchasing

Ideal planting weather across the Corn Belt has put pressure on the corn market, driving prices to five-month lows not seen since December. U.S. planting progress remains strong, with 40% of corn and 30% of soybeans planted—slightly ahead of average. Ohio is progressing ahead of schedule, too, though recent heavy rains may slow things down temporarily. After a tough week, some buying interest returned to the oversold corn market, pushing prices higher into the weekend.

Several supportive headlines have helped both corn and soybeans close the week in the green. Export sales announcements to Mexico, unknown destinations, and Pakistan have stirred optimism. Meanwhile, news of a developing U.S.-UK trade deal—including reduced ethanol and beef tariffs—and upcoming high-level trade talks with China are also lending support. Traders are now looking ahead to Monday’s USDA WASDE report, which will provide the first glimpse at new crop balance sheets. While soybeans remain rangebound due to South America's large crop, any surprise in the report—or movement on the biofuels front (maybe someday)—could set a new market tone. Wishing you all a wonderful Mother’s Day weekend, and hope you enjoy the beautiful weather!

Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Kenton (Region 1)

Happy Friday, as we continue to truck (or swim) through May. Substantial rains should be out of the area for the majority of next week, with the temperature warming those first few days. Hopefully, this will dry things down enough to get back to planting. Soybeans and corn are both awaiting an announcement from the EPA regarding a biodiesel policy, but both are hopeful that it will come sooner rather than later.

U.S. planting progress update: corn is 40% planted and beans are 30% planted. The May WASDE Supply and Demand report comes out next Monday. This report will be the first look at the 2025/2026 balance sheet. We might also see some slight adjustments to the external demand for corn. The U.S. and China are expected to meet this weekend to begin talks of negotiations, so markets on Sunday night and Monday will have alot to digest. If you would like to get some targets in before the weekend, please reach out to your merchandiser!

I hope everyone has a happy Mother’s Day weekend!

Steve Bricher
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)

We are now a week into May, and planting here in Ohio has been lacking for the last 10 days. I had an old farmer tell me one time that a dry spring will scare you, and a wet spring will kill you. We are not yet to the point here in Ohio that it will kill us, but we do need some dry weather so we can get the crop in the ground. If the forecast holds, it looks like we should see some progress next week.

Today's corn market reminds me of the Paul Simon song, "Slip Sliding Away." We have lost 50¢ since mid-April, and it's not looking promising today for a rally. Yes, we are not getting planted here in the eastern corn belt, but as of last Monday, we were 40% planted nationwide. They have made progress out west this week, as they missed the rain that Ohio received. If you see any kind of rally, we need to get old corn cleaned up and some new crop on the books.

The soybean market is marking time, just kind of moving sideways. There is not a story out there today that is currently wanting anyone to support or push this market lower. We will have to see what bean acres get planted and how the crop progresses before we see any movement in this market. I still like new crop beans over 10.00 as a selling point today.

As always at this point, what you can see is your crop growing. It would be a great time to start getting some sales on as we move into the summer. Remember, the market will not wait for you to make a decision.

Lisa Warne
Grain Merchandiser, Marysville (Region 4)

Good afternoon! Ideal weather throughout the corn belt and great planting progress have kept a cap on the corn market this week. As of last Sunday, the US has 40% of the corn planted (average is 39%) and 30% of soybeans planted (average 23%). Ohio is sitting at 22% on corn (15% average) and beans are 23% (13% average). Many in the area received about 3 inches of rain in a week, so I don’t anticipate Ohio’s progress moving much on the next report. Also released on Monday’s progress report, the wheat condition for Ohio came in rated at 61% Good/Excellent, compared to 69% average.

Corn and beans are closing out the week in the green due to a couple of stories. On Thursday and Friday mornings, we saw flash sale announcements totaling 608,000 metric tons of corn sold to Mexico and unknown destinations. As well as 345,000 mt of soybeans to Pakistan. Optimism over the high-level Chinese trade deal talks this weekend is also supporting the market. Finally, traders are positioning ahead of Monday’s WASDE report from the USDA. This is the first report where we see the new crop balance sheets, which will help set the tone for the next several months. To close, I want to wish a Happy Mother’s Day to all the irreplaceable moms out there. Thanks for everything you do!

Ralph Wince
Grain Merchandiser, Canfield (Region 5)

Good afternoon. Another week has gone by, and we have not been in the fields one day this week in NE Ohio. Planting progress in NE Ohio is near 0% done. There are very few farmers who have anything in the ground, as of today. We might see a few guys plant late-day Sunday. We are hoping to miss the rains early next week, but only time will tell. Markets continue to struggle. We will get another USDA update on Monday. The nearby July CBOT corn contract has continued to lose ground this week and has broken through the key support level of $4.50. We will see if we close below the level today.

Soybeans have been chopped around sideways since the first part of April, and we continue to stay in that sideways mode. We continue to keep our eyes on the Trump administration and the EPA to see if we can strike some sort of a deal with the Renewable Diesel Standard. Some think we are getting close, so keep your eyes on that.

It does appear that the U.S. and China are going to at least start the talking process this weekend. Representatives from both countries are going to meet this weekend in Switzerland. That is a good thing, but remember that in Trump 1.0, negotiations took 13 face-to-face meetings to get the deal done, and it was far less complicated than what we are dealing with this time around. Stay tuned as we move forward.

Finally, Happy Mother’s Day to all those moms out there. I wish all the best to you, and thanks for all the hard work that you do each and every day. All you moms have so many different hats that you wear and do a fantastic job with all of them. You are very much appreciated!!!!!